Picking Six: Week 6 Preview and Picks

Week six is here! I am excited to get going on the picks this week. This could be the weekend that a clear leader rises in the West. In the East, will Orlando remain unbeaten? Let's see!


Last Week: 3-1, with my only pick missed being the Memphis-Atlanta winner. I underestimated Aaron Murray's impact last week. I won't do that again.


This Week's Matchups:

Arizona at Orlando

Memphis at Salt Lake

San Antonio at Atlanta

Birmingham at San Diego

(1-4) VS. (1-4)

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The Battle of the Basement! This is actually a difficult pick, because both teams have flashed potential, and both teams have been disappointing overall. This game, as always true, will come down to QB play and limiting mistakes. Josh Woodrum, QB for Salt Lake, threw for 380 yards last weekend, but also threw three interceptions. Zach Mettenberger, Express QB, was wildly inaccurate against Atlanta last week, but also was pressured constantly. 

Bottom Line: The teams records are identical, and the team stats are similar. The glaring difference is the run defense. Salt Lake is far superior against the run. I think this makes for a long day for Mettenberger. 

Prediction: Salt Lake 22, Memphis 19

(3-2) VS. (2-3)

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Has anyone else ever noticed that when teams that have records that will be identical if a certain team wins, that team almost always wins? Maybe that's not really a thing, but it sure seems like it. If that's the case, then Atlanta wins this one. But let's look at some other factors:
Aaron Murray: Since taking over at QB, Murray has led the Legends to a 2-0 record, and made Atlanta a team that must be taken seriously. The Legends are averaging 8.5 more points per game with Murray at QB. Beyond that, they just look like a different team. Their body language is different on the sidelines and in the huddle. The only real question for Atlanta is this: was adding Murray too little, too late?
Now, for San Antonio. The Commanders are coming off a Jekyll and Hyde kind of win, dominating the Hotshots in the first half, only to barely hold on in the second. San Antonio seems to be trending up, but they still appear to be a tad on the volatile side.

Bottom Line: Murray has made Atlanta into a team to be feared. The Legends take this one, as the Commanders fail to gain separation in the West. If this was in San Antonio, it would be a different story.

Prediction: Legends 25, Commanders 18

(5-0) VS. (2-3)

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Is this the week that the Apollos lose? Arizona certainly has the prolific offense to pull off the upset. Unfortunately for the Hotshots, they also have the prolific turnovers to get blown out of this game. Orlando has two players with three interceptions and they have seven interceptions as a team. You can bet they will be hungry for more against John Wolford, a QB that threw three INTs in his last game alone. 

On the Apollos side of the ball, they will be facing a defense in the Hotshots that is in the middle of the AAF against both the pass (4th) and the run (6th). The formula for the Apollos has been to pass early and run late. If they can do this again successfully, they win easily. 

Bottom Line: Orlando is going to be too hot for Arizona to handle. The underrated Apollos defense will turn the Hotshots over on multiple occasions, leaving Orlando at 6-0 and one step closer to the postseason. 

Prediction: Apollos 28, Hotshots 19

(3-2)VS.  (3-2)

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This is perhaps the most difficult pick of the weekend. The Fleet are sailing into this game on a high note, having just defeated Salt Lake in the AAF's most memorable finish so far. The Iron find themselves needing to go back to the forge, having dropped two games in a row. Birmingham has also made a change at QB, so it will be interesting to see how Price develops with a week of practice. If Birmingham can find a consistent passing attack, then they remain a contender. San Diego is undefeated at home, so clearly the crowd is a factor there. They set a new record high attendance mark last weekend. 

The Bottom Line: One question that lingers is this: Is either team legitimate? It took two defensive touchdowns for San Diego to defeat Salt Lake, and the Fleet were able to gain only about 30 yards rushing that game. Birmingham's defense was exposed last week by Orlando, but Bercovici is no Garrett Gilbert. However, Birmingham is not nearly as good at defending the run (7th) as Salt Lake is, so Ja'Quan Gardner could have a good night. This game is basically a toss up, so I am picking the home team. 

Prediction: Fleet 20, Iron 19